2010 Outlook: Quality Backup/Starter in Deep Leagues

Perhaps I am undervaluing him – but I want to see him do it on a regular basis before I spend a high pick on Crabtree. Holding out through preseason and the first five regular season games was no way to endear yourself to an old-school coach like Singletary, but Crabtree managed to pull off the feat with apparently limited lasting negative effects. He squeezed the 49ers for a six-year, $32-million contract and stepped up immediately as the team’s top wide receiver and big play threat.

Starting fresh from week one, there’s plenty of potential upside for Crabtree this year and beyond. He’s really only limited by San Francisco’s conservative offensive stylings and the fact that Alex Smith is still the QB. Given a more favorable set of circumstances, Crabtree would already be an elite fantasy WR. He’ll break through sooner or later but may peak out for this year as just a solid fantasy WR2. Don’t worry – some Tard in your league will jump on him on the 1st round to help you out.

WR Percy Harvin, MIN (WR – #21)

2010 Outlook: Sleeper – Quality Backup/Starter in Deep League

I think Harvin may have a better year than Crabtree and here’s why. Harvin had an impressive rookie campaign and was voted Offensive Rookie of the Year. He finished the 2009 regular season with 790 receiving yards, 135 rushing yards and a pair of return touchdowns. Harvin is rumored to have added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, which doesn’t bode well for opposing defenses as he led all NFL receivers with 25 broken tackles in 2009. He continues to battle migraines that cost him a game last season, but when he’s on the field Harvin is a threat to take it to the house on any play. With the exodus of Chester Taylor, Harvin might be asked to increase his rushing workload after he averaged an impressive 9 yards per rush on only 15 carries last year.

Harvin is an emerging game breaker and makes for an ideal WR3 in fantasy drafts this season and should be moved up draft boards in leagues that reward special team yardage / touchdowns. He should be ranked among the top 30 fantasy WR heading into 2010 drafts. He has the upside to become a WR2 depending on the outcome of the QB saga in Minnesota and should be a top 20 WR selection in dynasty leagues. Many other guys in your league will not grasp how much he’ll play at RB and undervalue him.

WR Mike Wallace, PIT (WR – #23)

2010 Outlook: Sleeper (undervalued) – Quality Backup/Starter in Deep League

I’m thinking the Pittsburgh receivers will be undervalues in most drafts due to Big Ben’s boneheaded-ness and subsequent suspension. But this 6 ft., 180 pound speedster out of Mississippi enjoyed a very productive rookie season with the Steelers. He finished with 39 catches for 756 and a league leading average of 19.4 yards per catch. Wallace is an emerging deep threat as he found pay dirt 6 times in 2009 and that number could approach double digits in his sophomore season now that he is assured a starting job with Santonio Holmes now a NY Jet.

Hines Ward is reliable, but aging, and will be used primarily on shorter routes. There is now no question that most deep balls will be directed in Wallace’s direction. He has added value in dynasty leagues as Wallace has the talent to emerge as the Steelers’ most productive fantasy wide out as soon as this year. Antwaan Randle El, Arnaz Battle, and possibly Limas Sweed will battle for the #3 spot, but none of them pose a threat to Wallace’s playing time. With instability at the QB position for the start of the season, temper your expectations. Though, Wallace has the upside to emerge as a WR2 and has the home run hitting ability to make him a high end WR3. I’m higher on him than most and am forecasting a 1,000 yard season with 8 touchdowns, making him a decent value once the top 20 receivers are off the board.

WR Julian Edelman, NE (WR – #27)

2010 Outlook: Spot Starter / Bye Week Fill-in

Most people hadn’t heard of Julian Edelman till week 2 in the season when Wes Welker went out due to injury, Edelman went off for 8 receptions for 98 yards. He was the hot fantasy pick-up after that, but he ended up disappointing owners as he did nothing much the rest of the season. Then in the regular season finale, he came into to replace the injured Wes Welker and caught 10 passes for 103 yards.

Edelman is a Welker clone: small, great hands, great over the middle, not the fastest and will also not score many TDs, making him much better in PPR leagues than in standard scoring leagues. Edelman will fight with veteran off season acquisition Torry Holt for the chance to step into Welker’s role. More likely they will end up splitting passes Welker used to see. Edelman should only be looked at in very deep standard leagues, where he should make for a solid flex (unless he ends being Brady’s go-to-guy with Welker out, then he moves up to a solid #3, maybe even #2 receiver in PPR leagues).

Late Rounders

WR Kenny Britt, TEN (WR – #38)

2010 Outlook: Sleeper (undervalued) / Spot Starter / Bye Week Fill-in

In the five weeks that Justin Gage missed in 2009, rookie Kenny Britt took the bull by the horns and caught three TD passes while also eclipsing 100 yards twice. By the end of 2009 (as the Titans were fighting for their playoff lives), Gage and Washington were reinstalled as the starting receivers, but I fully expect head coach Jeff Fisher to realize that Britt’s game breaking ability has to be in the starting lineup. The super athletic 6-foot-3 wide out led the Titans in receiving with 701 yards on 42 catches (16.7 avg.). His big play ability was evident by the fact that 34 of his 42 catches went for first downs or touchdowns, including 10 grabs for 20+yards. He’ll be on many sleeper lists and makes for a good value as a WR3 that you can likely get in rounds 9-10. He’ll go earlier in dynasty leagues as his upside is only limited by inconsistent quarterback play.

WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI (WR – #39)

2010 Outlook: Spot Starter / Bye Week Fill-in

On a team with so many weapons, it is easy to overlook the fine rookie campaign turned in by the Eagles’ 2009 first round pick, but do not make that mistake when it comes to drafting your WR3 or flex players this year. Maclin was expected to struggle while making the transition from the Missouri Tigers’ spread offense to an NFL system, but he looked like he belong almost from the start, finishing with 56 catches for 773 yards and four touchdowns. His breakout game was in Week 5 as Maclin ripped the lowly Bucs for 6-142-2 and while that was the only time the 6-0 target reached the century mark, he was surprisingly consistent the rest of the way. From Week 7 on, the shifty Maclin had at least 43 receiving yards in all but one game and in weeks 10-13, he averaged five catches and 71 yards. How the change in QB will effect is harder to say since Maclin was only playing in his second and third NFL games when Kevin Kolb was under center, but there is no doubt that he will get his opportunities. Despite his impressive skill set, Maclin will be no better than the Eagles’ third or fourth option in some weeks, so that takes him out of being a weekly starter in leagues that do not use three receivers (but his potential in any given week remains high). He has the skill set to be a big-time fantasy weapon, but reaching that level on a consistent basis comes down the line, so for now he makes for a fine rotational play in this high-powered offense.

Free Agents to Watch

Johnny Knox, CHI (WR – #49) – This ACU stand out went to the Pro Bowl last season as a rookie for his return prowess. I like this guy’s speed and toughness. If Cutler gets his act together and syncs with his backs and receivers to coordinate the attack, Knox could be an interesting play. It all remains to be seen as to what role Knox will play outside the return game, but he is a sleeper at receiver and will be viewed as such by many owners. I say take a gamble on him if you can afford it. Knox might be a waiver wire guy and those pick ups sometimes have great value.

Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE (WR – #54) – Cleveland’s 2009 second round pick is now their number one receiver. The 6-2 Mohamed Massaquoi had a quality rookie year, catching 34 passes for 624 yards and three scores. He spent most of last season as the go-to-guy for now departed quarterbacks Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Now he will have to do it for Jake Delhomme. If Delhomme is back to his old ways and does not have another awful season like he did in 2009, Massaquoi could be in for a great season. Though, the muddled quarterback situation in Cleveland did not change with the addition of Delhomme and Massaquoi’s production will depend on how well the quarterbacks perform. In very deep leagues, I would consider him higher since he will be the starter. If Cleveland’s offense shows signs of life in the pre-season, consider moving Massaquoi up your board.

Austin Collie, IND (WR – #58) – Austin Collie will probably enter the 2010 season battling Anthony Gonzalez for the number three wide receiver spot in Indianapolis. Collie proved in his rookie year that he can be a solid, yet unspectacular wide receiver for the Colts. Fantasy owners should not count on Collie putting up the same number this year, as Anthony Gonzalez will cut into his playing time. The Colts simply have too many receiving options for Collie to make a major impact, unless an injury or two were to occur.

Louis Murphy, OAK (WR – #65) – Murphy performed adequately last season when he was thrust into a starting role despite having been a draft afterthought. The fourth rounder flashed some skill and should retain his starting spot in 2010, barring a big push from Darrius Heyward-Bey. Like everyone else in this receiver corps, Murphy’s potential expands significantly if there’s a change at quarterback. If everything falls into place (meaning Jason Campbell at QB and Heyward-Bey playing in the slot), Louis could be a fantasy bargain. As it stands, you may want to consider him as a late round flyer in very deep leagues.

Brian Hartline, MIA (WR – #66) – Last season was Hartline’s rookie year. For a rookie, Hartline posted some pretty descent numbers. In 16 games he pulled down 31 receptions for 506 yards with 3 touchdowns. We believe this year Brian will find himself in a very similar role as last season. As such, we expect to see very similar numbers from Brian this year. Unless something happens to Marshall or Bess, it is likely Hartline’s numbers will not have much of a fantasy impact. Unless you’re in a deep league and in need of someone to fill out your roster, I’d stay away from Brian on draft day.