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Big XII Tournament Seeding Forecast

Posted by Ag_in_TX on February 25th, 2010 under Basketball

Let’s talk about Big XII Tournament seeding. KU is a lock for the #1 seed. If KSU takes care of business at home this coming Saturday against Mizzou, they are close to a lock for the #2 seed.

Kansas 13-0
Kansas State 10-3
Missouri 9-4
Texas 8-5
Baylor 8-5
Texas A&M 8-5
Oklahoma State 7-6

Let’s look at the remaining schedules for these teams. I think A&M is likely #4 seed with a shot at the #3 seed. Here’s why:

Mizzou
2/27 @ KSU 8:00 PM
3/02 @ ISU 8:00 PM
3/06 KU 2:00 PM

I think they drop 2 of 3 here – perhaps all three.

A&M
2/27 TEX 2:00 PM
3/03 OKST 9:00 PM
3/06 @ OKLA 12:00 PM

A&M wins at least 2 of 3 – a great shot at winning them all.

Texas
2/27 @ TA&M 2:00 PM
3/01 OKLA 9:00 PM
3/06 @ BAY 4:00 PM

Texas likely loses 2 of 3 here.

Baylor
2/27 @ OKLA 1:30 PM
3/02 @ TTU 8:00 PM
3/06 TEX 4:00 PM

Baylor can win all three of these, but will likely drop either the OU or Tech game.

OSU
2/27 @ TA&M 2:00 PM
3/01 OKLA 9:00 PM
3/06 @ BAY 4:00 PM

Loses two of three to fall back out of the race.

So, I see Mizzou dropping back into a tie with at least A&M and Baylor. Both have tie breaker over Mizzou. Baylor and A&M have split head to head, so we go to in division record where Baylor has a game on us. We need Baylor to lose one more game than we do – and they have more road games left. Baylor has been very beatable on the road.

Texas drops back to a #6 seed.

Thoughts?

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4 Responses

  1. I worry about our guard play in 2011.

    Baylor’s fans boo and whine like yeasty hatchet wounds.

  2. Horns beat OU and Baylor, lose to Aggies.

  3. [...] at Spence Park Soapbox last week, Ag_In_TX looked at how the seeding would shake out for the Big XII [...]

  4. So, let’s see:

    Mizzou
    2/27 @ KSU 8:00 PM
    3/02 @ ISU 8:00 PM
    3/06 KU 2:00 PM

    I think they drop 2 of 3 here – perhaps all three.

    Well, they lost to KSU and it took OT but they pulled it out as ISU. They’ll get killed at KU to finish. That means 10-6.

    A&M
    2/27 TEX 2:00 PM
    3/03 OKST 9:00 PM
    3/06 @ OKLA 12:00 PM

    A&M wins at least 2 of 3 – a great shot at winning them all.

    Two in the bag and hopeful for Saturday. With Willie Waren out, I predict a win and 11-5 record.

    Texas
    2/27 @ TA&M 2:00 PM
    3/01 OKLA 9:00 PM
    3/06 @ BAY 4:00 PM

    Texas likely loses 2 of 3 here.
    The Baylor game is shaping up as a biggie, eh? I still think the Baptists win that one and Texas finishes 9-7.

    Baylor
    2/27 @ OKLA 1:30 PM
    3/02 @ TTU 8:00 PM
    3/06 TEX 4:00 PM

    Baylor can win all three of these, but will likely drop either the OU or Tech game.

    I was wrong. Baylor wins them all, I think. 11-5.

    OSU
    2/27 KU
    3/01 @ TAMU
    3/06 NEB

    Loses two of three to fall back out of the race.

    KU win was huge – HUGE. But they still have to win Saturday – I think they do to finish 9-7.

    So, here goes – all assume KSU will beat ISU at home.

    We win, Baylor & Missouri win =

    3. Baylor (11 – 5) Defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record. Defeated Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    4. Texas A&M (11 – 5) Lost to Baylor based on South Division record. Defeated Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    5. Missouri (11 – 5) Lost to Baylor based on head-to-head record. Lost to Texas A&M based on head-to-head record.

    We win, Baylor loses & Missouri wins =

    3. Texas A&M (11 – 5) Defeated Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    4. Missouri (11 – 5) Lost to Texas A&M based on head-to-head record.
    5. Texas (10 – 6) Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 South Division teams.
    6. Baylor (10 – 6) Lost to Texas based on record against #4 South Division teams.

    We win, Baylor wins & Missouri loses =

    3. Baylor (11 – 5) Defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record.
    4. Texas A&M (11 – 5) Lost to Baylor based on South Division record.
    5. Missouri (10 – 6)

    We win, Baylor & Missouri lose =

    3. Texas A&M (11 – 5)
    4. Missouri (10 – 6) Defeated Texas based on head-to-head record.
    5. Texas (10 – 6) Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 South Division teams. Lost to Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    6. Baylor (10 – 6) Lost to Texas based on record against #4 South Division teams.

    We lose, Baylor & Missouri win =

    3. Baylor (11 – 5) Defeated Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    4. Missouri (11 – 5) Lost to Baylor based on head-to-head record.
    5. Texas A&M (10 – 6)

    We lose, Baylor & Missouri lose =

    3. Missouri (10 – 6) Defeated Texas based on head-to-head record.
    4. Texas (10 – 6) With Baylor, defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record. Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 South Division teams. Lost to Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    5. Baylor (10 – 6) With Texas, defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record. Lost to Texas based on record against #4 South Division teams. Defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record.
    6. Texas A&M (10 – 6) Lost to Baylor and Texas based on South Division record. Lost to Baylor based on South Division record.

    We lose, Baylor wins & Missouri loses =

    3. Baylor (11 – 5)
    4. Texas A&M (10 – 6) Defeated Missouri based on head-to-head record.
    5. Missouri (10 – 6) Lost to Texas A&M based on head-to-head record.
    6. Texas (9 – 7) Defeated Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.

    We lose, Baylor loses & Missouri wins =

    3. Missouri (11 – 5)
    4. Texas (10 – 6) With Baylor, defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record. Defeated Baylor based on record against #4 South Division teams.
    5. Baylor (10 – 6) With Texas, defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record. Lost to Texas based on record against #4 South Division teams. Defeated Texas A&M based on South Division record.
    6. Texas A&M (10 – 6) Lost to Baylor and Texas based on South Division record. Lost to Baylor based on South Division record.

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